The RBI's idiosyncratic focus on wholesale price inflation at the expense of retail inflation is a serious policy error.
Dabur's pre-quarterly update for Q3FY25 disappointed the market with the share dropping by 3.9 per cent. Growth was slower than expected and inflation hit margins. The management said that the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) consumption in rural markets was resilient and continued to grow faster than in urban markets.
Vegetables account for 5.44 per cent of the Consumer Price Index.
According to an industry expert, companies such as Trident, Welspun India, Arvind, KPR Mill, Vardhman Textiles, Page Industries, Raymond, and Alok Industries stand to gain, as revenue from the US market accounts for 20-60 per cent of their earnings.
"Consumers can strategise on the non-core consumption basket front by downtrading, that is, purchasing non-premium versions of products that effectively deliver the same utility," says Ritika Mankar, economist, Ambit Capital.
The deportation of Indians from the United States, deaths in the Maha Kumbh stampede and the joint Parliamentary committee report on the Waqf bill were among the issues that led to heated exchanges and some disruptions in an otherwise smooth first part of the Budget session that ended on Thursday.
The 30-share Sensex ended 30 points at 21,856 and the 50-share Nifty ended up 5 points at 6,517.
RBI has cut policy rate thrice during 2015.
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) State of the Economy report for October acknowledged a slowdown in some high-frequency indicators but expressed confidence in a recovery, aided by consumption demand during the festival season. "In India, aggregate demand is poised to shrug off the temporary slowdown in momentum in the second quarter of 2024-25 as festival demand picks up pace and consumer confidence improves," said the report released on Monday.
There are respected names arguing both for and against this recommendation of the Urjit Patel committee.
Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies are expected to witness pressure on volumes in the October-December quarter. However, price hikes will help push up revenues, said brokerages.For India's largest engineering firm, Larsen and Toubro (L&T), the analysts expect a 20 per cent growth in consolidated revenue, and an 8.1 per cent core business Ebitda margin, up 40 bps from a year ago.
The S&P BSE Sensex lost 285 points to end at 25,519.
High oil prices are expected to push up inflation to 3.9 per cent in the next three months, hardening interest rates, economic think-tank IEG has said.
The Central bank primarily factors Consumer Price Index while deciding on policy rate.
Heightened geopolitical uncertainties will lead the Reserve Bank's rate-setting panel to opt for a status quo at the next week's meeting, Axis Bank's chief economist Saugata Bhattacharya said on Monday. Bhattacharya said he had earlier expected a tightening action at the policy meet scheduled for April 6-8 but the increased uncertainties on the geopolitical front due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and its impact on commodity prices makes him now think that RBI will defer such an action. He said the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may hike rates in the second half of FY23 by up to 0.50 per cent.
The vegetables basket in Dec. recorded the highest inflation of 25.71 per cent.
The retail inflation was 9.90 per cent in November and 9.75 per cent in October.
The wholesale price-based inflation accelerated to a record high of 12.94 per cent in May, on rising prices of crude oil and manufactured goods. Low base effect also contributed to the spike in WPI inflation in May 2021. In May 2020, WPI inflation was at (-) 3.37 per cent. This is the fifth straight month of uptick seen in the wholesale price index (WPI)-based inflation. In April, 2021, WPI inflation hit double digit at 10.49 per cent. "The annual rate of inflation, based on monthly WPI, was 12.94 per cent for the month of May, 2021 (over May, 2020) as compared to (-) 3.37 per cent in May 2020.
According to the Central Statistics Office data, the jump in the retail inflation based on Consumer Price Index was mainly due to rise in prices of kitchen items like vegetables, meat and fish.
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday said that inflation is on a declining trajectory, as it has fallen by 170 basis points from its January 2020 peak. Retail inflation fell to four-month low of 5.91 per cent in March over the previous month, mainly due to easing food prices.
'The nominal GDP growth assumption for FY25 may be revised upwards on higher growth expectations.'
Share prices of Nestle India, Asian Paints, Bandhan Bank, Tata Technologies, AU Small Finance Bank and Avenue Supermarts, all a part of the BSE 500 index, have hit their respective 52-week lows on the BSE in Thursday's intra-day trade after a sharp correction in the equity markets.
Real estate developers are hoping that the slew of tax concessions announced in Union Budget 2025, set to take effect this financial year, will spur demand for affordable and mid-segment housing, even as the broader housing market shows signs of fatigue.
A panel headed by Reserve Bank of India deputy governor Urjit Patel recommended in January moving to an inflation target.
The government had amended the RBI Act through Finance Act 2016.
The 30-share Sensex closed 56 points at 23,815 and the 50-share Nifty closed flat at 7,109.
The decline in retail inflation has been mainly on account of falling prices of vegetables and pulses
Only one 25 basis points rate cut is likely this calendar year, between April and June, the poll says
The ever-astute Ravi Matthai, Director of Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad in 1971, offered me a basic salary of Rs 1,000 per month on my return from the United States. I doubt if IIMA could hire a faculty member at Rs 55,000 per month today! points out Dr Shreekant Sambrani.
Investors lost Rs 24.69 lakh crore in market valuation in the last four days of severe drubbing in the equity market. Spike in global crude prices, unabated foreign fund outflows, a strong US jobs data diminishing early rate cut expectations, and the rupee logging its steepest single-day fall in nearly two years dampened investors' sentiment.
The October-December quarter (Q3FY25) results of fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) major Hindustan Unilever (HUL) indicated weak demand, with urban growth muted and rural showing recovery. Consolidated revenue grew by 1.6 per cent (volume was flat) to Rs 15,818 crore, due to price hikes. Prices of key raw materials such as palm oil and tea remained elevated, leading to compression of gross margin.
Most members of the monetary policy committee (MPC) argued for front-loading interest rate hikes in view of rapidly rising inflation during the off-cycle monetary policy review earlier this month - the minutes of the meeting published on Wednesday showed. In early May, the rate setting committee met unscheduled and unanimously decided to hike the repo rate by 40 bps. This was the first repo rate hike in four years, and an inter-meeting hike in more than a decade.
Retail inflation, based on the Consumer Price Index, was 8.83 per cent in February, as per the government data release in New Delhi on Wednesday.
Inflation rate during August, the data for which is yet to be released, was likely to remain at about 7 per cent, said SBI Ecowrap.
RBI watchers are going to be on tenterhooks for the next 3 weeks.
The 30-share Sensex ended down 84 points at 21,171 and the 50-share Nifty closed 25 points lower at 6,308.
Finance Minister P Chidambaram attributed on Friday the fall in wholesale prices-based inflation to steps taken on the monetary front and said the government will continue to monitor the price-situation. He said consumer prices-based inflation was also down by 80 basis points in September over the previous month. The point-to-point rate of inflation, based on the CPI-IW, has decreased from 7.26 per cent in August to 6.40 per cent in September.
The Interim Budget for 2024-25 (FY25) to be presented on February 1 is likely to assume 10-10.5 per cent nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth against 8.9 per cent estimated for FY24 by the National Statistical Office (NSO). "We were waiting for the First Advance Estimates GDP numbers for FY24. "We will finalise the nominal GDP growth assumption for FY25 Interim Budget in a couple of days.
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